What does the weather do to ecommerce?
)
Britain has a reputation amongst tourists for being a land of perpetual rain, grey skies and warm beer. In reality of course, only one of those points is true; as with any country the climate in the south of the country varies from that in the north, with the added geographical fact of being right next to the Atlantic Ocean. This means all manner of weather can blow in and a more accurate characterisation of Britain is that it can experience multiple seasons in a single day.
It is not the warmest place on Earth, but we experience heatwaves and droughts. It is not the coldest place on Earth, but temperatures can drop well below freezing at times (Britain is actually on a similar longitude line to Moscow, but the wind off the Atlantic mostly keeps the coldest air in check so the average temperatures can be quite different). Frankly, we get a bit of everything in this country from a weather perspective, hence it comes up in conversation so frequently.
From Showers to Sunshine: How Weather Shapes Consumer Behaviour
We can also be guilty of blaming the weather for all our woes; it’s always too sunny or too cold or too wet or too dry. And, when it comes to retail, this is most certainly the case. But how fair is that? Was it really the weather what won it?
Retail is a sector that clearly revolves around seasonality. The sort of stock that a clothing retailer might be promoting in Summer is going to be very different from what it thinks it can shift in Winter, for the very obvious reason that demand is low for shorts and vests when it’s cold, but high for jackets and jumpers. There’s little point in merchandising umbrellas at the front of the store if there isn’t a cloud in the sky.
Many retailers report that changes in the seasons, when people actually feel things have shifted, can influence demand quite notably. So if we experience a cold winter, people don’t switch their attention onto spring ranges in large numbers until there is a change in the temperature that people really pick up on. One warm morning, when people leave the house at 7am in a heavy jacket then realise it’s too warm for that garment now, can make all the difference to the product ranges they browse. One swallow may not a summer make, but it sort of does in retail.
This topic is pertinent now because of the kind of weather we have experienced this year. It has been very sunny with the lowest Spring rainfall in 50 years. We then had three heatwaves in four weeks across June and July. At the halfway point of the year, the below graph shows how some of the categories IMRG tracks were performing against their 2025 forecast.
Many of them are ahead of forecast, so is it just the weather? Some are easier to assess on that basis than others.
Forecasting Sales: When Weather Isn’t the Whole Story
Sports & outdoors, for example, would clearly see a demand benefit to the weather being dry and sunny; it is outstripping the forecast by a factor of two. If we extract garden in isolation from home & garden, it is actually up +6.4%. Electrical might seem a bit of a stretch, but look at this graph of small appliances; it’s not hard to spot where the heatwaves occurred.
As a category it was not actually having a very good year in terms of revenue growth. Once the heatwave period kicked in, growth ballooned to over +100% at one point, and over +70% a few times too. The reason? Small appliances includes fans, air con units and ice-cream makers. As soon as the weather forecast says a heatwave is coming, they fly off the shelf.
The anomaly in the category growth chart is clothing. An extended dry, sunny period should have been music to the ears of a category where seasonally they are stocking shorts, t-shirts and swimming trunks. Yet it is currently well off forecast. Clothing is one of the categories where the impact of rain or heat is most profoundly felt and yet, it has not influenced a favourable demand spike.
So why is the weather not ‘working’ there? The fact is clothing is in a sustained period of tough trading conditions at the moment, experiencing a unique set of factors not least of which is the success of Vinted and people buying second-hand.
It seems like it will require some degree of sun indeed for its fortunes to be turned by the weather.
Latest News
-
Exploring retail media, AI-powered workflows, and eCommerce scaling challenges ahead of peak season—insights on opportunities, innovation, and collaboration from eCommerce Expo and Technology for Mark ...
-
Linnworks discusses AI hype, peak season readiness, and global marketplace opportunities, plus a session on how retailers can scale from £10 to £10M by embracing diversification and resilience.
-
Klaviyo explores AI personalisation, retention, and community-driven commerce, plus a session on how brands like Wild are turning customers into loyal advocates through personalised experiences.
-
Meet Our Exhibitors: James Brooke, CEO, Mapp
15 Sep 2025Mapp explores how enriched product data unlocks discovery, cashflow, and margin gains, plus a session on why structured attribution is reshaping the future of retail. -
Why Marketing Compliance Is the Next Competitive Advantage in E-Commerce
15 Sep 2025 RightlanderMarketing compliance is emerging as a competitive advantage in e-commerce, helping brands build trust, avoid costly penalties, protect platform presence, and future-proof growth by aligning with evolv ... -
Woo + Pressable share insights on ecommerce trends, peak season challenges, and the customer-centric innovations redefining digital commerce, plus a preview of their session on shifting shopper behavi ...
-
Exploring AI adoption, evolving loyalty, and sustained peak season strategies, this perspective highlights how brands can stand out by staying curious and customer-focused in a fast-changing ecommerce ...
-
How exhibitors can use PR to steal the show at industry events
15 Sep 2025 Alex Humphries-French, MADTech Practice Director at Propeller GroupPropeller Group’s Alex Humphries-French shares how exhibitors can cut through the noise at industry events with smarter PR—shaping stories, engaging media, and building lasting visibility before, duri ... -
How Temu Helped This UK Manufacturer Increase Sales and Create Jobs
28 Aug 2025 TemuNova Tissue transformed its business with Temu, unlocking rapid e-commerce growth, boosting profitability, and creating jobs — all while navigating rising costs and shrinking traditional sales channel ... -
AI-driven personalization, economic uncertainty, and evolving consumer expectations are reshaping eCommerce. Ahead of eCommerce Expo 2025, discover insights on resilience, continuous learning, and why ...
-
Bluestone PIM explores how AI personalization, composable commerce, and product experience management are reshaping eCommerce. From data challenges to omnichannel growth, discover insights, advice, an ...
-
Gavin Holland on Designing at Scale: Building Global UX for the Modern Shopper
20 Aug 2025 Phoebe Dunsmore, Marketing ExecutiveGavin Holland, Global Head of UX Design at JD Sports Fashion, reflects on his career journey from BBC Worldwide to leading global UX at scale. He shares insights on collaboration, personalisation, AI- ... -
From bricks-and-mortar to digital transformation, this interview explores the evolving world of ecommerce trading at Primark, touching on performance metrics, stock strategy, and the customer-centric ...
-
What does the weather do to ecommerce?
28 Jul 2025 Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight Director, IMRGDespite Britain’s unpredictable weather, seasonal shifts significantly impact retail. While heatwaves drive demand in categories like appliances and outdoor gear, clothing sales remain sluggish due to ... -
Ready to go global? The Paypers’ Global Ecommerce Report 2025 will help you navigate expansion
26 Jun 2025Our media partner, The Paypers, has launched the Global Ecommerce Report 2025, teaming up with industry experts to bring you a guide to global expansion packed with insights to help you succeed. -
Why Averages Lie (and What Marketers Should Measure Instead)
23 Jun 2025 Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight Director, IMRGIn eCommerce performance analysis, averages are essential — but they can also be deceptive. This article explores the limitations of relying solely on average figures, particularly in benchmarking sce ... -
May 2025 in eCommerce and Marketing: Key Moves, Shifting Strategies, and Emerging Risks
02 Jun 2025 Alyssia Smith, Senior Content Manager at CloserStill MediaFrom Walmart’s tariff-driven pricing backlash to Tesco’s leadership shakeup and Shein’s IPO detour, May saw pivotal changes across global retail. AI disruption, influencer marketing growth, and rising ... -
Registration Now Open for Growth Summit 2025
02 Jun 2025Growth Summit 2025 is officially open for registration. This new invite-only experience is designed for senior retail leaders who want to sharpen their strategy, connect with peers, and benchmark thei ... -
A Good Start, But Where Next?
30 May 2025 Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight Director, IMRGAfter such a long period of decline for the eCommerce market, where any positive growth gain made in one week would quickly be eliminated by a drop over the subsequent weeks, we can perhaps be forgive ... -
Tesco’s UX Research Manager on Human-Centred Design, Scaling Insight, and Building Impact with AI
29 May 2025Currently UX Research Manager at Tesco, Serkan Ayan shares how human-centred research drives customer experience, how to scale UX in large organisations, and why curiosity is key to career growth in t ... -
The first edition of the Global Ecommerce Report highlights the transformative shifts in the ecommerce and payments industries. With the increased tendency towards globalisation, digitalisation, and h ...
-
Miracle Inameti-Archibong, Head of Search at John Lewis & Partners, shares her approach to integrating SEO across channels, leading teams, and adapting to AI-driven changes in search.
-
Can We Now Have More Confidence in the eCommerce Market?
29 Apr 2025 Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight Director, IMRGA few months’ ago, in this very series, I posited the idea that eCommerce might be making a bit of a comeback following years in the growth wilderness. The early weeks of the year were all positive fo ... -
Camilla Mackay-Wilson, Head of E-Commerce, Retail at Soho House, shares her career journey and insights into the world of eCommerce. She discusses her path from Marks & Spencer to leading digital stra ...
-
The 2025 eCommerce Awards are now open for entries, and the search for the industry's best is officially on.
-
Martina Guizzardi, Global Senior CRM & Loyalty Lead at Oner Active, shares key career lessons, consumer insights, and strategies for building lasting customer relationships.
-
eCommerce Expo is delighted to introduce our newly formed 2025 Advisory Board – an impressive assembly of eCommerce visionaries poised to transform the event landscape.
-
Have we got our eCommerce back?
25 Feb 2025 Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight Director, IMRGAfter years of decline, eCommerce is showing signs of recovery. What’s driving this shift, and is the industry finally bouncing back? -
How Did eCommerce do in 2024?
27 Jan 2025 Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight Director, IMRGAndy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight Director at IMRG, reflects on the challenges and growth patterns of eCommerce in 2024, highlighting sector winners, market shifts, and what lies ahead for online ret ... -
Introducing Growth Summit 2025 – The Premier Invite-Only Event for Senior Retail Leaders
27 Jan 2025We are delighted to announce the launch of Growth Summit 2025, an exclusive, invite-only event taking place on 24th September 2025 at ExCeL London, brought to you by eCommerce Expo and IMRG. Designed ...