A Good Start, But Where Next?
)
After such a long period of decline for the eCommerce market, where any positive growth gain made in one week would quickly be eliminated by a drop over the subsequent weeks, we can perhaps be forgiven for being a bit cynical about any return to a growth trajectory that is more consistent and reliable.
In fact, there is something quite uniquely British about our attitude toward it, where pessimism overcomes the evidence of your own eyes; the culture of ‘we’re 2-0 up after 90 minutes, I bet we’ll lose’.
From Relapse to Recovery: Signs the Slide May Be Over
Yet we do have to accept that things do feel like they may have finally started to turn a corner from a trading perspective. The eCommerce market has experienced declines for the past three years; -10% in 2022, -3% in 2023 and -1.7% in 2024. The rate of the declines have been headed in the right direction, but the general momentum behind those figures makes it even more encouraging.
If we break 2024 into two halves and average out the growth rates for them we can see a clear turnaround was taking shape. The first half of the year did see a strong decline of -3%, in line with that of 2023 and seemingly with no progress being made, but the second half of 2024 came in at +1.7%.
The starting point was a really good opening few weeks of September for online trading, and yet immediately talk was of a blip. The weather then was autumnal, which is useful for selling the kind of product ranges retailers buy in for that season. In 2023, those equivalent weeks saw temperatures of 30 degrees, so demand for those products fell very flat and the year-on-year growth figure was skewed by it. This is all true, these were indeed factors in the performance, but the important thing is we didn’t see a huge falling away after the uplift.
Then came the Black Friday peak, and the event moved back a week in the calendar which caused real problems with understanding the like-for-likes; trade looked weak at first, then came a big week when the skewed growth figures were favourable but, on the whole and extending across the Christmas period generally, when the dust settled actually the analysis showed it was pretty good.
A good start to January 2025 trading followed. Once again, pessimism accompanied – the first half of 2024 was poor, particularly the start of the year, so it’s just balancing out. Sure, there is an element of that, but there is a difference here I think. Over the past few years we have often had weeks and months where we are comparing against a period of negative growth from the previous year and we haven’t been able to secure positive growth against it. At the start of this year, 17 of the first 20 weeks have seen positive growth; that simply hasn’t happened with that consistency since 2021 and the pandemic madness.
Peaks, Pitfalls, and Pockets of Growth
It's not just eCommerce where cautious optimism seems to be raising its head again. In areas like hospitality and travel, large company results have been encouraging; the weather has been very sunny with little rain it’s true, but again that difference with the past few years is spend is happening with a bit of consistency whereas results against a bit of sunshine often felt a bit underwhelming previously.
It’s worth adding a caveat at this point: it’s not consistent across all categories. For example, health & beauty is up +15% year-to-date (after 20 weeks) whereas clothing is down -5.6%.
Equally, when the retail peak events come along they don’t all perform the same. So the Mothers’ Day period for example, on a like-for-like basis (the date moves in the calendar each year, in 2025 by three weeks, so this is comparing the week leading into Mothers’ Day for 2024 and 2025 rather than a specific date) was up +12% this year; the week leading into Easter on the other hand (it also moved by three weeks so same like-for-like logic applies here), saw revenue fall -2%.
Be that as it may, the eCommerce market is undeniably more up than down with a lot more consistency recently. Not everything will do well but, after such a miserable period of unending declines, it feels like a return to trading normality and – yes, low single-digit, but still – positive growth is really happening.
Latest News
-
)
From Walmart’s tariff-driven pricing backlash to Tesco’s leadership shakeup and Shein’s IPO detour, May saw pivotal changes across global retail. AI disruption, influencer marketing growth, and rising ... -
)
Growth Summit 2025 is officially open for registration. This new invite-only experience is designed for senior retail leaders who want to sharpen their strategy, connect with peers, and benchmark thei ... -
)
After such a long period of decline for the eCommerce market, where any positive growth gain made in one week would quickly be eliminated by a drop over the subsequent weeks, we can perhaps be forgive ... -
)
Currently UX Research Manager at Tesco, Serkan Ayan shares how human-centred research drives customer experience, how to scale UX in large organisations, and why curiosity is key to career growth in t ... -
)
The first edition of the Global Ecommerce Report highlights the transformative shifts in the ecommerce and payments industries. With the increased tendency towards globalisation, digitalisation, and h ... -
)
Miracle Inameti-Archibong, Head of Search at John Lewis & Partners, shares her approach to integrating SEO across channels, leading teams, and adapting to AI-driven changes in search. -
)
A few months’ ago, in this very series, I posited the idea that eCommerce might be making a bit of a comeback following years in the growth wilderness. The early weeks of the year were all positive fo ... -
)
Camilla Mackay-Wilson, Head of E-Commerce, Retail at Soho House, shares her career journey and insights into the world of eCommerce. She discusses her path from Marks & Spencer to leading digital stra ... -
)
The 2025 eCommerce Awards are now open for entries, and the search for the industry's best is officially on. -
)
Martina Guizzardi, Global Senior CRM & Loyalty Lead at Oner Active, shares key career lessons, consumer insights, and strategies for building lasting customer relationships. -
)
eCommerce Expo is delighted to introduce our newly formed 2025 Advisory Board – an impressive assembly of eCommerce visionaries poised to transform the event landscape. -
)
After years of decline, eCommerce is showing signs of recovery. What’s driving this shift, and is the industry finally bouncing back? -
)
Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight Director at IMRG, reflects on the challenges and growth patterns of eCommerce in 2024, highlighting sector winners, market shifts, and what lies ahead for online ret ... -
)
We are delighted to announce the launch of Growth Summit 2025, an exclusive, invite-only event taking place on 24th September 2025 at ExCeL London, brought to you by eCommerce Expo and IMRG. Designed ... -
)
Discover how Frankie Thorogood built and scaled multi-million-pound eCommerce brands, navigated challenges, and learned invaluable lessons in entrepreneurship. From risk-taking to resilience, get insi ... -
)
The ever-evolving world of eCommerce and marketing has seen transformative shifts this year. Here's what stood out in 2024.... -
)
Black Friday 2024 showed positive revenue growth, marking the first uplift since 2020, but traffic remained subdued, dampening the overall success. Year-on-year comparisons were skewed due to the timi ... -
)
Retailers are gearing up for the biggest sales event of the year, but with shifting dates and unpredictable shopping habits, it’s a rollercoaster ride. Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight Director at I ... -
)
Bite-size updates on what happened in marketing and eCommerce this month, to keep you ahead of the curve and inform your campaigns. -
)
In this exclusive interview, we sit down with Ramona Gohil, founder of the feminist jewellery brand Rani & Co. From humble beginnings to TikTok-fuelled success, Ramona shares her journey, insights int ... -
)
ECommerce has been in the doldrums for a few years now, with negative revenue growth, lower conversion and dips in site traffic becoming an accepted part of market conditions; that has been the post-p ... -
)
Meet Zaria Parvez, the mastermind behind Duolingo's viral social media success, who grew their TikTok from 50K to over 11M followers. Discover how she transformed Duolingo into a social-first brand, c ... -
)
If you are a regular reader of this column, you’ve probably gotten used to the updates often containing news that don’t paint a great picture of eCommerce performance. But I’m just the messenger! I ca ... -
)
Meet Adam Ull, Global Product Information Lead at H&M, who is transforming commerce by using data and AI to enhance customer experiences across digital channels. He discusses building agile systems an ... -
)
In the ever-evolving world of eCommerce, UK merchants must adopt strategic approaches to ensure sustainable growth both at home and abroad. In our recent webinar featuring Emily McMorran, CX Lead at w ... -
)
Some essential tips to help you deliver an impactful presentation with Alyssia Smith, Senior Content Manager at eCommerce Expo and Technology for Marketing -
)
A new source of information for businesses wanting to expand and increase their customer base. -
)
What a miserable year it’s proving to be for eCommerce. Revenue has performed well below expectation, site traffic overall has seen barely any growth in 2024 so far and conversion remains suppressed. ... -
)
Shaun Loughlin, Head of eCommerce at LeMieux, shares his 20-year journey in retail and eCommerce, emphasising international expansion strategies. -
)
Discover how Deliveroo enhances grocery delivery by partnering with retailers, offering logistics, and advanced tech integration, ensuring fast and reliable customer service.
){kind=logo}
){kind=logo}
){kind=logo}
){kind=logo}
){kind=logo}
)
){kind=logo}
)
)
)
.png/fit-in/500x500/filters:no_upscale())
){kind=logo}
){kind=logo}
){kind=logo}
)
){kind=logo}
)
