UK eCommerce in 2024: Struggles, Bright Spots, and Hopes for Recovery
)
2023 Revenue Growth Overview
Monitoring the performance of a market can sometimes give easy-to-understand conclusions. Consider the below graph for example. It shows revenue growth for the eCommerce market in 2023 (blue line for the first half of the graph), then a three-pronged forecast for growth across 2024, which we set out at the start of the year. The yellow line shows the expected growth (i.e. what the trend lines suggest should happen), then there is an alternative that tracks what could happen if trading conditions are a bit more favourable (green line) and if they turn out to be a bit worse (red line).
(Image source: IMRG)
Actual Performance in 2024
The blue line into 2024 shows what has actually happened so far this year. So – it is pretty clear to see that it has been a torrid year for eCommerce in the UK. Not only has performance been below expectation, it has been consistently beneath even the lower estimate of trading conditions. Year-to-date (YTD – Jan-Apr 2024 vs Jan-Apr 2023 year-on-year uplift) the market is tracking down -4.7%; the lower estimate of performance would bring it in at -2% for the year as a whole. Speaking to retailers, this does tend to tally with their experience – the trading environment is just proving very, very tough at the moment.
Sector-Specific Performance
It's important to note that the poor performance for eCommerce has not been across the board; there are bright spots. Clothing, for example, is down -6.4% YTD against a forecast of -2%. Yet within the clothing category, footwear has had more weeks of positive growth in 2024 than negative. Meanwhile menswear has frequently recorded declines of -10% and more. At the other end of the scale though health & beauty is seeing strong growth online, with revenue up +8.9% YTD against a forecast of +7%. Fragrance in particular is driving that growth.
Potential for Turnaround
Does this mean then, with the exception of health & beauty, that eCommerce is guaranteed to have a poor year for growth in 2024?
Not necessarily. While it may now require a pretty serious turnaround in fortunes for growth to come in anywhere near the expected forecast (0%), it’s also far from certain that it will continue at the same very low growth rate we’ve seen so far this year. The forecast chart above showed growth split out by month, if we split it out by week we can see something slightly different happening.
Impact of Calendar Events on Growth
(Image source: IMRG)
The red box shows growth in 2024 so far. Some of the sharp declines are due to some key retail events moving forward a week in the calendar (Mothers’ Day, Easter, the mayday bank holiday also went back a week; these usually bring discounting campaigns in the lead-up) so the year-on-year figure is not a proper like-for-like. If you remove those skewed dips, the trajectory – from a very poor January – is toward the 0% base line. This graph includes the first two weeks of May, which were positive – that is the first time we have recorded two consecutive weeks of positive growth since April 2021. The sun coming out was likely a significant factor after a cold and wet April.
Looking Ahead: Summer Boosts?
This doesn’t mean that demand is suddenly exploding back to life again but, in the past 36 months, 34 of them have seen negative growth for eCommerce (the other two were flat rather than notable positive growth). At some point, the declines will reach a natural end; it can’t keep falling away forever, and it feels like we might be approaching that now.
Add in a Euro football tournament and an Olympics, and the potential for some feelgood events this summer may provide an additional boost to demand.
But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves…
Latest News
-
)
Explore how increasing discount usage in eCommerce is impacting revenue growth in 2024. Discover the trends, challenges, and strategies retailers are employing to navigate tough trading conditions. -
)
Big Bus Tours transformed its digital marketing amid COVID-19, leveraging local insights and tech innovations. The result? Increased revenue, higher click-through rates, and record-breaking digital pe ... -
)
We are thrilled to reveal the initial category finalists for the 2024 eCommerce Awards. -
)
Bite-size updates on what happened in marketing and eCommerce this month, to keep you ahead of the curve and inform your campaigns. -
)
Meet SJ, AllSaint's Global Leader in CX, Fraud & D2C, as she tells you more about implementing AI at a major British fashion retailer, as well as strategies for payment security and fraud prevention -
)
The UK eCommerce market has underperformed in 2024, with actual revenue growth consistently below forecasts, though some sectors like health & beauty show resilience and potential for improvement. -
)
Insights on the transformative impact of generative Artificial Intelligence in eCommerce from daily applications to long-term implications. -
)
Meet Giovanni, Head of eCommerce Media Europe at Lipton as he shares valuable insights into effective eCommerce strategies and balancing creativity with data-driven decisions. -
)
A comprehensive examination of the advantages and limitations of Amazon advertising. -
)
Meet Robert Manning, Head of Direct to Consumer & eCommerce at Biotiful, who's spearheading the launch of ambient products through DTC channel in the rapidly growing gut health market. -
)
In a recent conference session, Andrew Ostcliffe, Oxfam's Head of eCommerce & Retail Innovation, shared key strategies for managing rapid eCommerce growth while integrating with physical store offerin ... -
)
In this conference Helen Slaven, Chief Revenue Officer at Poq, and Jennifer North, Head of Digital Experience at Hobbycraft, shared valuable insights into the pivotal role of mobile apps in driving cu ... -
)
2024 started off badly for eCommerce sales in the UK and it looked like demand might actually be getting even more suppressed; a real blow to a market that has seen 35 consecutive months of negative m ... -
)
If you haven’t started your entries already to the eCommerce Awards there is still plenty of time to start your winning journey… -
)
Recognising excellence in the world of eCommerce the ceremony will take place after day one of eCommerce Expo. -
)
Explore Martin's journey into AI, and discover his insights on integrating AI into business operations and how can AI enhance creativity. -
)
Learn eCommerce success essentials from Chloë Thomas: adapt, profit, engage. Test and innovate to thrive in today's competitive market. -
)
As I mentioned in a previous article, eCommerce is going through a tough period at the moment. Following the huge growth online during the lockdowns, it has fallen away consistently as we’ve entered a ... -
)
Discover essential insights into eCommerce talent sourcing trends with Andy Davies, from Vertical Advantage. Learn about salary shifts, leadership gaps, and strategies for sustainable growth. -
)
IMRG’s recent session highlighted key insights for eCommerce growth: 🎧 Listen to the Full Session In This Session: eCommerce Downturn: 2022 saw negative growth in the UK's eCommerce sector, largel ... -
)
Learn how to go composable with Lampoo, luxury second-hand fashion retailer. -
)
With trading conditions proving to be very difficult over the past few years, it was perhaps a surprise that peak trading fell in line with forecasts for online retail. -
)
Discover key insights with Paul Walsh, Founder of All Things Amazon. -
)
Meet Paul Kirby, Trustpilot's Enterprise Customer Success Manager, sharing his journey from media advertising to guiding eCommerce leaders through reviews. -
)
IMRG reveal industry customer acquisition rates, how long customers should be staying with you, and if you’re spending too much to acquire new customers. This session uses IMRG’s unique market dataset ... -
)
Meet Manuel, the Director of Client Strategy at Bloomreach. -
)
Brands that succeed in 2024 are likely to be those that connect brand and customer experiences seamlessly, digitally and physically in everyday life: at home, in play, in retail, and more. Faced with ... -
)
A pretty good Christmas for retailers, but… For many retailers selling in the UK market, the past few years have been notable for a clear dip in customer demand; the economic downturn has been reflec ... -
)
What does it take to gain 1 million active mobile app users monthly? How do you reach the ability to deploy any applications or API changes worldwide in 5 minutes or less? Well, Formidable’s Director ... -
)
Discover the secrets behind Pandora's colossal success as the world's largest jewellery brand in a session titled "How Product Information Management Powers Pandora's Global Retail Growth." The world’ ...
){kind=logo}
)
)
)
)
){kind=logo}
)
)
)
){kind=logo}
)
){kind=logo}
){kind=logo}
.png/fit-in/500x500/filters:no_upscale())
){kind=logo}
)
)
){kind=logo}
)
)
)
)
)
){kind=logo}
){kind=logo}
){kind=logo}
